Assessing possible changes in flood frequency due to climate change in mid‐sized watersheds in New York State,USA     

Stephen B. Shaw  Susan J. Riha 《水文研究》2011,25(16):2542-2550

The frequency of flooding is often presumed to increase with climate change because of projected increases in rainfall intensities. In this paper, using 50‐plus years of historical discharge and meteorological data from three watersheds in different physiographic regions of New York State, USA, we find that annual maximum stream discharges are associated with 20% or less of the annual maximum rainfall events. Instead of rainfall events, approximately 20% of annual maximum stream discharges are associated with annual maximum snowmelt events while 60% of annual maximum discharges are associated with moderate rainfall amounts and very wet soil conditions. To explore the potential for changes in future flood risk, we employed a compound frequency distribution that assumes annual maximum discharges can be modelled by combining the cumulative distribution functions of discharges resulting from annual maximum rainfall, annual maximum snowmelt, and occurrences of moderate rain on wet soils. Basing on a compound frequency distribution comprised of univariate general extreme value (GEV) and gamma distributions, we found that a hypothetical 20% increase in the magnitude of rainfall‐related stream discharge results in little change in 96th percentile annual maximum discharge. For the 99th percentile discharge, two waterbodies in our study had a 10% or less increase in annual maximum discharge when annual maximum rainfall‐related discharges increased 20% while the third waterbody had a 16% increase in annual maximum discharges. Additionally, in some cases, annual maximum discharges could be offset by a reduction in the discharge resulting from annual maximum snowmelt events. While only intended as a heuristic tool to explore the interaction among different flood‐causing mechanisms, use of a compound flood frequency distribution suggests a case can be made that not all waterbodies in humid, cold regions will see extensive changes in flooding due to increased rainfall intensities. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Snow interception modelling: Isolated observations have led to many land surface models lacking appropriate temperature sensitivities     

Jessica D. Lundquist  Susan Dickerson-Lange  Ethan Gutmann  Tobias Jonas  Cassie Lumbrazo  Dylan Reynolds 《水文研究》2021,35(7):e14274

When formulating a hydrologic model, scientists rely on parameterizations of multiple processes based on field data, but literature review suggests that more frequently people select parameterizations that were included in pre-existing models rather than re-evaluating the underlying field experiments. Problems arise when limited field data exist, when “trusted” approaches do not get reevaluated, and when sensitivities fundamentally change in different environments. The physics and dynamics of snow interception by conifers is just such a case, and it is critical to simulation of the water budget and surface albedo. The most commonly used interception parameterization is based on data from four trees from one site, but results from this field study are not directly transferable to locations with relatively warmer winters, where the dominant processes differ dramatically. Here, we combine a literature review with model experiments to demonstrate needed improvements. Our results show that the choice of model form and parameters can vary the fraction of snow lost through interception by as much as 30%. In most simulations, the warming of mean winter temperatures from −7 to 0°C reduces the modelled fraction of snow under the canopy compared to the open, but the magnitude of simulated decrease varies from about 10% to 40%. The range of results is even larger when considering models that neglect the melting of in-canopy snow in higher-humidity environments where canopy sublimation plays less of a role. Thus, we recommend that all models represent canopy snowmelt and include representation of increased loading due to increased adhesion and cohesion when temperatures rise from −3 to 0°C. In addition to model improvements, field experiments across climates and forest types are needed to investigate how to best model the combination of dynamically changing forest cover and snow cover to better understand and predict changes to albedo and water supplies.  相似文献   

Permafrost at the time of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in North America     

Hugh M. French  Susan W. S. Millar 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2014,43(3):667-677

This paper presents three maps that summarize current knowledge as to the extent of Past permafrost and Relict permafrost in North America at approximately the time of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; c. 25–17 ka BP) and during subsequent deglaciation until c. 10 ka BP. Analysis of the post‐1983 literature suggests that the extent of Past permafrost south of the LGM limit was broader in eastern North America and slightly narrower in the Interior Great Plains than previously mapped. The recognition and dating of Relict permafrost in the nonglaciated terrain of the northwestern Arctic suggests that permafrost may be of great antiquity and can persist under changing climatic conditions. The formation of permafrost features during deglaciation suggests that ice‐proximal climatic conditions remained cold at least long enough for short‐lived permafrost aggradation; a latitudinal gradient is evident in the timing of its development as the Laurentide Ice Sheet retreated.  相似文献   

A serious flooding event in Nigeria in 2012 with specific focus on Benue State: a brief review     

Susan Agada  N. Nirupama 《Natural Hazards》2015,77(2):1405-1414

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Controls on deep critical zone architecture: a historical review and four testable hypotheses   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Clifford S. Riebe  W. Jesse Hahm  Susan L. Brantley 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2017,42(1):128-156

The base of Earth's critical zone (CZ) is commonly shielded from study by many meters of overlying rock and regolith. Though deep CZ processes may seem far removed from the surface, they are vital in shaping it, preparing rock for infusion into the biosphere and breaking Earth materials down for transport across landscapes. This special issue highlights outstanding challenges and recent advances of deep CZ research in a series of articles that we introduce here in the context of relevant literature dating back to the 1500s. Building on several contributions to the special issue, we highlight four exciting new hypotheses about factors that drive deep CZ weathering and thus influence the evolution of life‐sustaining CZ architecture. These hypotheses have emerged from recently developed process‐based models of subsurface phenomena including: fracturing related to subsurface stress fields; weathering related to drainage of bedrock under hydraulic head gradients; rock damage from frost cracking due to subsurface temperature gradients; and mineral reactions with reactive fluids in subsurface chemical potential gradients. The models predict distinct patterns of subsurface weathering and CZ thickness that can be compared with observations from drilling, sampling and geophysical imaging. We synthesize the four hypotheses into an overarching conceptual model of fracturing and weathering that occurs as Earth materials are exhumed to the surface across subsurface gradients in stress, hydraulic head, temperature, and chemical potential. We conclude with a call for a coordinated measurement campaign designed to comprehensively test the four hypotheses across a range of climatic, tectonic and geologic conditions. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The <Emphasis Type="Italic">Wind</Emphasis>/EPACT Proton Event Catalog (1996 – 2016)     

Rositsa Miteva  Susan W. Samwel  Marcus V. Costa-Duarte 《Solar physics》2018,293(2):27

We present the finalized catalog of solar energetic proton events detected by the Wind/EPACT instrument over the period 1996?–?2016. Onset times, peak times, peak proton intensity and onset-to-peak proton fluence are evaluated for the two available energy channels, at about 25 and 50 MeV. We describe the procedure utilized to identify the proton events and to relate them to their solar origin (in terms of flares and coronal mass ejections). The statistical relationships between the energetic protons and their origin (linear and partial correlation analysis) are reported and discussed in view of earlier findings. Finally, the different trends found in the first 8 years of Solar Cycles 23 and 24 are discussed.  相似文献   

Isochron‐burial dating of glaciofluvial deposits: First results from the Swiss Alps          下载免费PDF全文

Naki Akçar  Susan Ivy‐Ochs  Vasily Alfimov  Fritz Schlunegger  Anne Claude  Regina Reber  Marcus Christl  Christof Vockenhuber  Andreas Dehnert  Meinert Rahn  Christian Schlüchter 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2017,42(14):2414-2425

In this study, we use isochron‐burial dating to date the Swiss Deckenschotter, the oldest Quaternary deposits of the northern Alpine Foreland. Concentrations of cosmogenic ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al in individual clasts from a single stratigraphic horizon can be used to calculate an isochron‐burial age based on an assumed initial ratio and the measured ²⁶Al/¹⁰Be ratio. We suggest that, owing to deep and repeated glacial erosion, the initial isochron ratio of glacial landscapes at the time of burial varies between 6.75 and 8.4. Analysis of 22 clasts of different lithology, shape, and size from one 0.5 m thick gravel bed at Siglistorf (Canton Aargau) indicates low nuclide concentrations: <20 000 ¹⁰Be atoms/g and <150 000 ²⁶Al atoms/g. Using an ²⁶Al/¹⁰Be ratio of 7.6 (arithmetical mean of 6.75 and 8.4), we calculate a mean isochron‐burial age of 1.5 ± 0.2 Ma. This age points to an average bedrock incision rate between 0.13 and 0.17 mm/a. Age data from the Irchel, Stadlerberg, and Siglistorf sites show that the Higher Swiss Deckenschotter was deposited between 2.5 and 1.3 Ma. Our results indicate that isochron‐burial dating can be successfully applied to glaciofluvial sediments despite very low cosmogenic nuclide concentrations. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Solubility and near-equilibrium dissolution rates of quartz in dilute NaCl solutions at 398-473 K under alkaline conditions     

Michael C. Davis  Jörgen Rosenqvist  Susan L. Brantley 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2011,75(2):401-415

The dissolution-precipitation of quartz controls porosity and permeability in many lithologies and may be the best studied mineral-water reaction. However, the rate of quartz-water reaction is relatively well characterized far from equilibrium but relatively unexplored near equilibrium. We present kinetic data for quartz as equilibrium is approached from undersaturation and more limited data on the approach from supersaturated conditions in 0.1 molal NaCl + NaOH + NaSiO(OH)₃ solutions with pH 8.2-9.7 at 398, 423, 448, and 473 K. We employed a potentiometric technique that allows precise determination of solution speciation within 2 kJ mol⁻¹ of equilibrium without the need for to perturb the system through physical sampling and chemical analysis. Slightly higher equilibrium solubilities between 423 and 473 K were found than reported in recent compilations. Apparent activation energies of 29 and 37 kJ mol⁻¹ are inferred for rates of dissolution at two surface sites with different values of connectedness: dissolution at Q¹ or Q² silicon sites, respectively. The dissolution mechanism varies with ΔG such that reactions at both sites control dissolution up until a critical free energy value above which only reactions at Q¹ sites are important. When our near-equilibrium dissolution rates are extrapolated far from equilibrium, they agree within propagated uncertainty at 398 K with a recently published model by Bickmore et al. (2008). However, our extrapolated rates become progressively slower than model predictions with increasing temperature. Furthermore, we see no dependence of the postulated Q¹ reaction rate on pH, and a poorly-constrained pH dependence of the postulated Q² rate. Our slow extrapolated rates are presumably related to the increasing contribution of dissolution at Q³ sites far from equilibrium. The use of the potentiometric technique for rate measurement will yield both rate data and insights into the mechanisms of dissolution over a range of chemical affinity. Such measurements are needed to model the evolution of many natural systems quantitatively.  相似文献   

The role of granites in volcanic-hosted massive sulphide ore-forming systems: an assessment of magmatic�Chydrothermal contributions     

David L. Huston  Jorge M. R. S. Relvas  J. Bruce Gemmell  Susan Drieberg 《Mineralium Deposita》2011,46(5-6):473-507

Assessment of geological, geochemical and isotopic data indicates that a significant subgroup of volcanic-hosted massive sulphide (VHMS) deposits has a major or dominant magmatic?Chydrothermal source of ore fluids and metals. This group, which is typically characterised by high Cu and Au grades, includes deposits such as those in the Neoarchean Doyon-Bousquet-LaRonde and Cambrian Mount Lyell districts. These deposits are distinguished by aluminous advanced argillic alteration assemblages or metamorphosed equivalents intimately associated with ore zones. In many of these deposits, ??³⁴S_sulphide is low, with a major population below ?3??; ??³⁴S_sulphate differs from coexisting seawater and ??³⁴S_{sulphate?Csulphide}????20?C30??. These characteristics are interpreted as the consequence of disproportionation of magmatic SO₂ as magmatic?Chydrothermal fluids ascended and cooled and as a definitive evidence for a significant magmatic?Chydrothermal contribution. Other characteristics that we consider diagnostic of significant magmatic?Chydrothermal input into VHMS ore fluids include uniformly high (>3 times modern seawater values) salinities or very ¹⁸O-enriched (??¹⁸O?>?5??) ore fluids. We do not consider other criteria [e.g. variable salinity, moderately high ??¹⁸O_fluid (2?C5??), ??³⁴S_sulphide near 0??, metal assemblages or a spatial association with porphyry Cu or other clearly magmatic-hydrothermal deposits] that have been used previously to advocate significant magmatic?Chydrothermal contributions to be diagnostic as they can be produced by non-magmatic processes known to occur in VHMS mineral systems. However, in general, a small magmatic?Chydrothermal contribution cannot be excluded in most VHMS systems considered. Conclusive data that imply minimal magmatic?Chydrothermal contributions are only available in the Paleoarchean Panorama district where coeval seawater-dominated and magmatic?Chydrothermal systems appear to have been physically separated. This district, which is characterised by chloritic and sericitic alteration assemblages and lacks aluminous advanced argillic alteration assemblages, is typical of many VHMS deposits around the world, suggesting that for ??garden variety?? VHMS deposits, a significant magmatic?Chydrothermal contribution is not required. Other than deposits associated with advanced argillic alteration assemblages, the only deposit for which we ascribe a major magmatic?Chydrothermal contribution is the Devonian Neves Corvo deposit. This deposit differs from other deposits in the Iberian Pyrite Belt and around the world in being extremely Sn-rich, with the Sn closely associated with Cu and in having formed from high ¹⁸O-rich fluids (??¹⁸O_fluid ??8.5??). We consider these characteristics, particularly the last, as diagnostic of a significant magmatic hydrothermal contribution. Our analysis indicates that two subgroups of VHMS deposits have a major magmatic?Chydrothermal contribution: Cu/Au-rich deposits with aluminous alteration assemblages and reduced, very Sn-rich deposits in which Sn was introduced in a high-temperature ore assemblage. Comparison with ??normal?? VHMS deposits suggests that these subgroups of VHMS deposits may form in specialised tectonic environments. The Cu/Au-rich deposits appear to form adjacent to magmatic arcs, an environment conducive to the generation of hydrous, oxidised melts by melting metasomatised mantle in the wedge above the subducting slab. This contrasts with the back-arc setting of ??normal?? VHMS deposits in which relatively dry granites (In this contribution, we use the term granite sensu latto) formed by decompression melting drive seawater-dominated hydrothermal circulation. The tectonic setting of highly Sn-rich VHMS deposits such as Neves Corvo is less clear; however, thick continental crust below the ore-hosting basin may be critical, as it is in other Sn deposits.  相似文献   

The formation of metastable aluminosilicates in the Al-Si-H₂O system: Results from solution chemistry and solid-state NMR spectroscopy     

Harris E. Mason  Robert S. Maxwell  Susan A. Carroll 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2011,75(20):6080-6093

We present the results of a series of experiments designed to probe the interactions between Al and the amorphous silica surface as a function of thermodynamic driving forces. The results from ²⁷Al single pulse magic angle spinning (SP/MAS) and ²⁷Al{¹H} rotational echo double resonance (REDOR) allow us to identify the reaction products and constrain their structure. In all cases, despite low Al and Si concentrations we observe the formation of metastable aluminosilicates. Results from low temperature experiments indicate that despite thermodynamic driving forces for the formation of gibbsite we observe the precipitation of separate octahedrally coordinated Al (Al^[6]) and tetrahedrally coordinated Al (Al^[4]) silicate phases. At higher temperatures the Al^[4] silicate phase dominates the speciation. Structural models derived from the NMR data are also proposed, and the results are discussed as they relate to previous work on Al/Si cycling.  相似文献